Transnational Organized Crime in Latin America. Risks and Challenges for the Armed Forces

Abstract

This Working Paper examines the recent evolution of transnational organized crime (TOC) in Latin America, characterized by economic diversification, institutional pen- etration, and the emergence of adaptable criminal networks with territorial control, lo- gistics, and financial structures. The authors argue that the region is experiencing a “Fourth Wave” of TOC, in which criminal organizations operate as hybrid enterprises embedded in both illegal and legal markets. In response to rising violence and insecurity, many governments have increasingly re- lied on the militarization of internal security as a rapid solution. However, comparative evidence analyzed in this paper demonstrates that militarization implemented without strategic planning, financial and logistical intelligence, effective civilian oversight, and clear exit strategies tends to produce limited results while generating significant long- term risks and harms. These include the erosion of civilian and military institutions, criminal co-optation of institutions, weakened civilian control of the military, and demo- cratic backsliding. The paper concludes that addressing TOC requires comprehensive, non-militarized strategies focused on disrupting illicit economies, strengthening prison governance, protecting critical infrastructure, and reinforcing the rule of law. Military forces may play a role only in these areas under exceptional, temporary, and civilian-supervised circum- stances.